Making militias out of molehills

So this is a fantastic article.

In brief (because everyone hates reading): Independent militias are on the rise since Obama's election.  There's increasing numbers of violent events where the perpetrators attribute their craziness to the fact that, heaven forfend, we got us a BLACK president.  And what's more, he's a liberal! (Of course, the radical right never exactly understood what "liberal" was, they just generally opposed...well, everything.  I doubt even if we all did convert to fundamentalist Christianity and carried around automatic weapons to protect our submissive wives and 2.3 children that they'd be one iota happier.)

And Mr. Gellman has a point.  He lists a few examples of explosions of anti-government violence.  James Von Brunn, member of an neo-nazi group in Idaho and generally pretty crazy guy, drove up to a Holocaust memorial and shot the first non-white guy he came across.  It was senseless, it was vicious and it accomplished nothing.

To add one, in 2009, Richard Poplawski, another neo-nazi and white supremicist (not to mention a marine school drop-out) shot three Pittsburgh police officers who were guilty of...responding to a call for help.  Again, senseless, vicious, wasteful.

But it's been said.  That the radical right, due to a combination of a poor economy and a president of a race they don't approve of (aka, not white), has unified into one violent mass of terror out to kill you and eat your family.

Let's put it in perspective.

The Southern Poverty Law Center estimates there are 932 active hate groups in the US.  This is an estimate,
meaning it could be lower, and it could be higher.  But let's just use it.

The TIME article describes an exercise of the Ohio Defense Force, an independent militia.  It claims 300 members state-wide.  So, let's get terrifying.

932 groups times 300 members = 279,600 military-trained crazies.

Population of the US: 307 million.

Proportion of the US that is military-trained crazies: .0009, or .09%.

Now, keep in mind the Ohio crazies CLAIM 300 members.  And the Ohio group is not necessarily a hate group.  This .09% statistic is probably entirely inaccurate.  The SPLC does not list the criteria it uses to define a hate group, but does list among hate group activities "leafletting or publishing".  Furthermore, it claims to not include works and websites "appearing to be merely the work of an individual" (my emphasis).  Which sounds like it abitrarily decides which works and websites from a single person.  Leaving some room for error.

In truth, the actual proportion of the population in these groups is probably too small for my calculator.

On the other hand, the ACLU claims 500,000 members and supporters.  That's more than double my ridiculously off-point estimate.  That's just the ACLU.

I always get a bit suspicious whenever horror stories like these start flying around.  Whenever people wave their hands in the air and scream "WE'RE ALL IN DANGER!" I hesitate.  Because if you listen to these racists, they're actually just afraid.  Afraid the government's going to take their guns.  Afraid that Mexicans will take their jobs.  Gays will take their children.  Liberals will take their rights. 

Their decisions are based on fear.  Ours shouldn't be.  If for no other reason than that we outnumber them.  At the very least, 10 to 1.

Some other fun numbers:
Number of people who attended Glenn Beck's rally on 8/28/10: CNN says 87,000.
Number of people who attended September 25, 2005 protest against the Iraq war: Between 150,000 to 300,000
Number of people signed up on facebook to attend Jon Stewarts Restoring Sanity Rally: 181,600.

So, eat it, Tea Party.